Statistical Modelling and Epidemiological Assessment of COVID-19 Fatality in India

The relentless spread of alpha, beta, and delta SARS-CoV-2 VoC with new waves of infections affected the world severely. A new SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VoC), omicron, was reported on November 25, 2021, around 23 months after the first reported case of COVID-19 and after an estimated 260 million infections and 5.2 million deaths worldwide. Till December 10, 2021, India has reported 32 cases of Omicron variant. Thus, it is crucial to assess and evaluate the risk of current pandemic in order to manage and control it. The study emphasizes appalling and unprecedented COVID-19 mortality in India. The most adaptable epidemiological index for measuring the severity of the disease is Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and is estimated using the Yoshikura method. The estimated CFR of 10 states in India is compared along with the general formula of CFR and Kerala is found to be having the least CFR of 0.40% indicating the least severity of the disease. The mortality in India is modeled using probability distributions such as Weibull, Gamma, and Lognormal in order to obtain the best-fitted model with the data. The study demonstrates that the Gamma distribution is the best fitting probability model. Time-series modelling is used to analyse the trend and forecasting pattern of mortality. The ARIMA model indicates an ascending trend of death in upcoming days and this prescient model gives help to the administrative authorities and medical personnel in health care service and infrastructure arrangements in forthcoming days. The public health measures and prevention approach of vaccination will be an effective strategy for the foreseeable future.